Typical low
Ahead4 Oct – 16 Nov 2026
52–58w · average 54.5w (23 Oct 2026)
10.0w to the average
Cycle-low band $43,000–$58,000
Where 2013, 2017 and 2021 printed a first low. Price in that band is confluence — not a forecast for a single date.
Cycle desk — Bitcoin measured in weeks, from the live tape.
Connecting
—
waiting
Weeks from peak
44.6w
Early bear
To typical low
10.0w
Past bears: 52–58 weeks
Confluence
13%
1 of 8 on · early
Drawdown vs peak
50%
Spot $63,500
From this week count. Not a trade.
Still early. Historical first lows printed around 52–58 weeks. Calling a low here would be ahead of the week count.
Time from this peak. The typical low is a cluster, not a single day.
4 Oct – 16 Nov 2026
52–58w · average 54.5w (23 Oct 2026)
10.0w to the average
Cycle-low band $43,000–$58,000
Where 2013, 2017 and 2021 printed a first low. Price in that band is confluence — not a forecast for a single date.
23 Aug 2027
98w from this peak · 53.4w from now
Time mark only.
The 98-week process. Use it if the first low fails — or if you count from an earlier significant high, in which case this date moves.
Get a note when the typical window opens.
Weeks since the peak. Left is 6 Oct 2025. Right is later. The green band is where past bears printed a first low.
White mark is now (14 Aug). Green is the 52–58 week cluster. 98w is the 98-week mark.
NowYou are here
44.6w · 14 Aug 2026
10.0w to the typical low
Typical low
54.5w · 23 Oct 2026
Where 2013, 2017 and 2021 printed a first low
Longer process
98.0w · 23 Aug 2027
Only in play if that first low fails
Weekly close from the live tape. Same dates as the windows — peak 6 Oct 2025, now 14 Aug, typical 23 Oct.
Slower clocks around Bitcoin. The week count still comes from the peak. How the clocks nest
Next estimated 17 Apr 2028. Not a low date.
A long housing and credit cycle, counted from 2008. Background only — not a Bitcoin target.
This bear versus 2013, 2017 and 2021 — percent of each peak, from weekly closes (illustrative until history loads). Three analog cycles: a small sample. Dates on the axis are this cycle, from 6 Oct 2025.
From the cycle high, down. The green band is the cycle-low band (43–58k). Time still leads — these levels only confirm.
Left is the peak. Right is lower. Now is 50% of the high — still above the 43–58k band.
Halfway from the peakClosest to now
$63,100
About where we are · Half of the cycle high. A common pause — not a target by itself.
Top of the cycle-low band
$58,000
9% below now · Upper edge of the 43–58k cycle-low band.
Deep pullback
$47,956
32% below now · About 38% of the peak left. Only in play if the decline extends.
Bottom of the cycle-low band
$43,000
48% below now · Lower edge of that same band. Time still has to agree.
1 of 8 marks on — a first low is not expected this early.
13%
Printing now
Bear-year August seasonality
OnAugust in a bear year is historically a weak month.
Not yet
Typical low approaching
Waiting44.6 of ~70 weeks. Still early for the typical low.
Price in the cycle-low band
WaitingSpot is still above the cycle-low band.
MSTR / ETH / XRP alignment
Waiting0 of 3 peers are down today (needs 2).
Three-bar rule
WaitingNeeds three daily bars of lower highs and lower lows — or the reverse off a low.
200-week MA test
Waiting200-week average not loaded yet.
Volume / accumulation
WaitingNeeds the last 7 days’ volume at least 1.25× the prior 21 days.
Fear & Greed extreme
WaitingFear & Greed is — (extreme is 25 or below).
The tape read stands until the tape does one of these.
A new cycle high
A print above $126,200 resets the week count.
The typical window passes cold
After 23 Oct 2026, if spot is still well above $58,000, the 52–58 week analog is late.
A wash through the band too early
Through $43,000 while the week count is still early is a deeper test — time still has to agree.
Named peaks. This ATH follows the live high. Save a count from an earlier peak to run the 98-week mark.
Unpin a feed to run a what-if. Leave them on for the live desk.
Live time
Week count from now
Live spot
Coinbase BTC-USD
Sync peak from market
This cycle’s high from the tape